Thursday, 25 August 2011

Charles Hendry Quote

Following on from Chris' blog about the "Back Biomass" press release, I just wanted to highlight the following quote from Charles Hendry (UK Energy Minister):

“We want a balanced energy portfolio and we want biomass to play a central role in this. Biomass electricity is both predictable and controllable and I am very interested in the potential for co-firing and conversion. I am confident that the bioenergy industry can deliver our ambition for around 6GW of biomass electricity by 2020, as set out in our Renewables Roadmap.”

“The UK industry has been at the forefront in ensuring biomass electricity is sustainable and that it delivers real greenhouse gas savings. The very clear sustainability criteria we now have in place will mean we know where biomass has come from and how it has been grown.”

UK minsters have been rather timid, at least in public, in stating their support for biomass, so we were very pleased to see this unambigous statement from the Energy Minister.

Tuesday, 23 August 2011

New Biomass Lobby Campaign:

The UK Renewable Energy Association has today launched its ‘back biomass’ campaign. Click here to see the press release.

The campaign is focussed on the outcomes of the Renewables Obligation banding review with regard to biomass power and CHP. As well as ensuring suitable levels of support, the big priority is to ensure that Government keeps to its promise of making a firm decision on the review by the end of this year.

REA has set up a website (www.backbiomass.co.uk) with key arguments, case studies and details of how to get involved. Please circulate this to as many colleagues as possible. The campaign has the support of Charles Hendry and will feature a Parliamentary event in the Autumn. More details to follow.

Monday, 22 August 2011

Risi report forsees USA paper use falling by 50% due to iPad like tablets.

Risi has just made a press release, summarized below, that notes the dramatic impact of IT on the use of paper forecast in both the US and European markets. For context a 50% reduction in pulp use for paper in the US market could be 130m tons per annum

BRUSSELS, Aug. 22, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- Media tablets are on pace to become a ubiquitous, mass-market, consumer product faster than any-other previously released, technological device. The powerful implications of this rapid adoption on publication paper markets is the subject of a new study The Impact of Media Tablets on Publication Paper Markets, published by RISI, the leading information provider for the global forest products industry.

Sales of Media Tablets to Reach 195 Million Units by 2015, Causing Paper Use in Magazines to Fall by 20% and to Half in Fifteen Years Time in North America

The market for media tablets – consisting of tablet computers (including Apple's iPad) and electronic readers (including Amazon's Kindle) – exploded in 2010. By the end of the first year of availability, over 15 million tablet computers were in use. In North America alone, the size of the electronic reader market almost doubled, with over 10 million in use. Early-on, signs of trouble for the publication paper market became clear:

  • In 2010, the top free app in Apple's iTunes store was iBooks.
  • A Morgan Stanley inquiry discovered that 42% of US tablet owners will cancel their print newspaper subscription
  • In May of this year, Amazon.com announced that ebook sales now exceed those of printed book sales in the U.S.

"Many graphic paper producers make their living selling paper to the publishing industry, those companies will be greatly affected by media tablets," explains John Maine, RISI's Vice President World Graphic Paper and Study Team Leader. "Significant demand impacts could come as soon as 2012."

The Impact of Media Tablets on Publication Paper Markets finds that by 2015, most publishing paper end uses in North America, such as magazine, newspaper and book publishing, will fall 12-21% compared to their 2010 levels. This is on top of the massive collapse that occurred during the recent recession. Paper use in North American books, magazines and newspapers could see another 40-50% fall over the next 15 years.

Market declines are also anticipated in Europe, especially for printed newspapers, but the percentage losses in the Western European market will be somewhat less than North America because of a reduced rate of media tablet adoption and fragmented media markets.

The Impact of Media Tablets on Publication Paper Markets forecasts the decline by grade and end-use in the Publication Paper Market over the next five, ten and fifteen years, analyzing the effects of e-readers and tablet computers on the North American and Western European markets. The forecast covers three scenarios: a base case, strong impact case (with quicker diffusion of tablets to the mass market) and a weak impact scenario.

For more information, visit www.risi.com/media.

About RISI

RISI is the leading information provider for the global forest products industry. The company works with clients in the pulp and paper, wood products, timber, biomass, tissue, nonwovens, printing and publishing industries to help them make better decisions.

Headquartered in Boston, MA, RISI operates additional offices throughout North and South America, Europe and Asia. More information can be found at www.risi.com.

Saturday, 20 August 2011

The fallacy of the UK governments "offshore wind cost cutting task force"

I awoke this morning the read DECCs announcement that it is appointing
Andrew Jameison, chair of the RenewableUK wind energy trade
association, to head up a Government and industry task force "in
driving the work necessary to bring the levelised costs of offshore
wind down to £100/MWH".
http://www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/news/chair_offshore/chair_offshore.aspx

What prompts me to blog is the utter economic stupidity of the
proposal. The price paid for wind turbines is a simple matter of
supply and demand, not the underlying costs of manufacture. Reducing
the cost of manufacture will simply increase the turbine industry
profitability. Why? Well, there are only a handful of manufacturers
in a world of buyers. When you have many more buyers than suppliers,
the balance of power is in the hands of the suppliers, and suppliers
can auction their capacity to the highest bidder, in the USA, China,
or where-ever.

Perhaps the UK government is seriously proposing to rebalance the
power towards buyers, by increasing the number of suppliers to such an
extent that there are more manufacturers than users in the world, such
that buyers can auction their contracts to a competitive universe of
manufacturers? Such a coordinated attempt to distort a market seems
frankly Marxist in it's lofty aspirations.

Why does it matter to me? Well, I grew up in an industry where the
fittest win. One where the government didn't pick the winners, the
white heat of competition did that. I saw the competitiveness of large
scale biomass 5 years ago, and yet successive layers of government
meddling have conspired to thwart my attempts to deliver the concept.
We live in a world where government intervention is being rightly
punished for it's folly (think Euro) but they won't learn.

Tuesday, 16 August 2011

Offshore wind farms: who will pay?

This week, BBC News is taking an in-depth look at offshore wind farms, and the challenges, costs and construction of these sea giants. Here, science correspondent David Shukman talks to Professor Dieter Helm, an economist from the University of Oxford, who believes that while the UK government should invest in more green power generation, offshore wind farms are far too expensive.
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Friday, 12 August 2011

U.S Dept of Energy Publishes "Billion-Ton" Biomass Availability Update

The study updates the 2005 study which identified the availability of over 2 billion tons of wet (1 billion tons dry) biomass available from US forestry and agricultural activities. The latest study (194 pages) is available here:

http://www1.eere.energy.gov/biomass/pdfs/billion_ton_update.pdf

The study forecasts some 240 million wet tons of forest biomass available by 2030, at a local price of <£27 per mtonne (assuming 50% moisture, $1.627/£).

Further updates here once we have digested the report.

Wednesday, 10 August 2011

BT pension fund’s green investment

The BT pension fund is for the first time making investments in UK equity holdings based on their green credentials, it has emerged. The £36 billion fund made a £100 million investment in a green version of the FTSE All Share Index in June, according to the Financial Times. If this initial investment proves, successful, the BT pension fund will invest most of the £3.7 billion it has allocated to UK equities in this way, the FT reported.








Tuesday, 9 August 2011

Forest to Market Blog: Wood Emissions 4% of Coal, Study Shows

Forest to Market has just posted this on their blog:
Wood Emissions 4% of Coal, Study Shows
 
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In the long term, a sustainable forest management strategy aimed at maintaining or increasing forest carbon stocks, while producing an annual sustained yield of timber, fiber, or energy from the forest, will generate the largest sustained mitigation benefit."                                                                                                                                  –IPCC

Despite global support for the IPCC's view that sustainably managed forests play a critical role in climate mitigation, pockets of disagreement have gained traction in the US (read a related post:Dividend then Benefit). A recent comprehensive review of research on the life cycle carbon accounting for wood, which was recently published in the journal Carbon Management, is the most important piece of scholarship to support the IPCC's view. It is also the most important piece of scholarship to date undermining arguments like those made in the Manomet study that wood as an energy source has higher emissions than coal.

This new study, conducted by Lippke et al,* reviews recent research on life cycle carbon accounting across all stages of processing, from cradle-to-grave. While the study is much more comprehensive than I can do justice to here, a few of the conclusions should be an essential part of the knowledge base of all wood bio-electricity facilities facing opposition.

Peer reviewed primary life cycle data allowed the authors of the study to complete GHG emission comparisons for different power plants. They found that "each mega joule of electricity that a woody biomass plant produces generates only 4% of the emissions from a bituminous coal plant, using a fossil fuel base for comparison. This is in direct contrast to the proposed EPA method where the CO2 uptake in the wood from the atmosphere is treated the same as if it were mined like coal rather than sourced from sustainably managed forests."  Even using the EPA's proposed method, the group found, a biomass plant's emissions would equal just 86% of the emissions from a coal plant.

The study's authors found that, by using life cycle carbon accounting, they could expose the unintended consequences of current policies designed to reduce or mitigate carbon emissions. Policies based on only one carbon pool, it turns out, can do more harm than good. One of the most serious negative  impacts has been created by carbon exchanges, which offer incentives for reducing harvests in order to increase carbon stores. By ensuring the use of more fossil fuels (coal instead of biomass), however, these policies actually lead to higher carbon emissions.

Fossil fuel emissions are by far the largest contributor of carbon emissions to the atmosphere. The study concludes that displacing fossil fuels with wood from sustainably managed forests will provide the maximum rate of carbon absorption possible.

"While maximizing forest growth contributes more wood to utilize, the dominant source of carbon mitigation comes from sustainably displacing fossil emissions through the use of wood since the carbon stored in the forest is a one-time creation and can only contribute  to sustainably reducing carbon emissions by harvesting the wood to substitute for other materials."

In essence, the amount of carbon that trees sequester drops as the trees age; they then die and decompose. At this time, the benefit of not harvesting the trees has been completely obliterated. From a life cycle impact perspective, harvesting trees when they can provide the most carbon benefits, including long-lived wood products (lumber, engineered wood products, trusses, etc.) that can be substituted for other building materials (steel, concrete) and energy products (biomass, in-woods chips, etc.) that can displace fossil fuels, is best carbon mitigation strategy available.

* Lippke et al. 2011. Life cycle impacts of forest management and wood utilization on carbon mitigation: knowns and unknowns. Carbon Management 2 (3), 303-333.




RWE profits drop 40% on nuclear review

Today's FT noted that:

FT.com - Energy
Energy group hit by costs related to Germany's decision to phase out nuclear power and tax fuel rods
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RO Banding Review Timing Reiterated Yesterday by UK Government....

Yesterday the Government published its "roadmap" to the green economy", (https://online.businesslink.gov.uk/Horizontal_Services_files/Enabling_the_transition_to_a_Green_Economy__Main_D.pdf) with the statement copied below. The timeline itself can be seen here, https://online.businesslink.gov.uk/Horizontal_Services_files/Green_Economy_Policy_Timeline-WEB.pdf and the RO Banding Review is confirmed as taking place this year and coming into force, as planned, at 1st April 2013 when the current bands end.

Post Date: 08 August 2011

The government has set out its ambitious vision to help businesses prepare for the transformation of the British economy so that it can meet the challenges of the more resource-stretched future.

The documents, under the collective title of Enabling the Transition to a Green Economy, have been developed by Defra, BIS and DECC in response to requests from the private sector for greater clarity on what the government means by the term “green economy”, its policies for achieving this, and how they come together.

They also outline also what businesses need to do to play their role in the transition and be well placed to capitalise on the new opportunities for growth and job creation.

They include the government's vision; a timeline for the key policies andinvestments; a document for SMEs on what the transition means for them; three case studies highlighting how the chemicals, food and drink and automotivesectors are responding to the issues of moving to a green economy, together with additional guidance.

Wednesday, 3 August 2011

RO Banding Consultation

The UK Renewable Energy Association has just made this news announcement to members:

We have been informed by DECC that the RO Banding Consultation document is progressing and will be published as soon as possible.  There have been no changes to DECC's plans – contrary to the impression given in yesterday's article in the Argus, which begins "The UK's Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) said it will be "late August at the earliest" before it announces proposed revisions to renewable obligation certificate (Roc) banding levels. The announcement comes amid reports that a decision on Roc banding has been delayed until the end of the year."  This is not the official DECC position on the timing of the publication, and it is misleading to talk of a delay, as the decision has actually been brought forward a year.